Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in a hypothetical November debate, according to a flurry of new polls. They paint a picture of a race that is very tight, but one where Trump's advantage is solidifying. The surveys suggested that Biden may be in a better position to win the election due to his likability edge over Trump, who has been campaigning against him for five years. Biden had a lower favorability rating than Trump in all four polls, but some of them were within the surveys' margins of error. This was not an occurrence during the 2020 election cycle, in which Biden ran as a candidate who promised to unite a country bitterly divided after four years under Trump. The Biden and Trump campaigns did not reply to requests for comment on the apparent likability shift.
Biden's popularity still lags even as voters are more positive about the economy, an issue that has weighed on the president's reelection campaign so far. 40% of voters approve of Biden's management of the economy, up four points from the same question in December. When asked how the U.S. economy was under Trump, 65% of those surveyed said it was good. Fifty-five percent of voters said that Biden's policies would drive prices higher, while 34% said Trump would do the same. If he becomes president, Trump could raise the tariffs on Chinese goods and the tariffs on all U.S. imports. Biden has been trying to convince voters that his economic agenda is the reason for the economy's recovery. Biden has yet to be given credit for the strong economy even though voters are still feeling the inflationary squeeze on their budgets. The Wall Street Journal poll had a margin of error of 2.5%.